Persons involved:
Henrik Hartmann (PI)
Melanie Maraun (Postdoc, associated)
Daniel Magnabosco (Postdoc, associated)
Rico Fischer (Postdoc, associated)
Florian Mann (Technician, associated)
Research outline:
Rapid climate change introduces substantial uncertainty into efforts of long-term forest management planning. Simulation models are valuable tools to address such uncertainties, but current models lack realism in simulating tree responses to heat and drought stress or interactions with biotic stressors. To improve model realism, data assimilation from forest ecosystems into vegetation models is needed. Dynamic “digital twins” link real-world objects with computer models via a bidirectional flow of information and the model learns in real time from the object. A forest digital twin consists of three distinct parts: (1) a forest ecosystem, (2) a computer model of the forest, and (3) a communication channel between the two. The communication flow between the forest and its digital representation includes information (e.g. silvicultural treatments) and data streams from physical sensors.
In this work package we establish a unique forest data assimilation feedback-system into and out of a modelling environment. We develop the scientific underpinnings for the evolution of digital twins that can serve as interactive tools for forest scientists, managers and also policy makers. Our twins use individual-based mechanistic forest ecosystem models to simulate major tree functional processes like photosynthesis, respiration, recruitment, growth and mortality. Our system builds parameter spaces of tree functional responses to climate extremes and biotic attack, thereby making realistic predictions of future forest dynamics feasible. The twins will allow projecting digital forest with real or fictive species composition and structural complexity into future climate conditions. By doing so, our twins allow embracing uncertainty of today’s decision making towards climate resilient forests.
Contact
Prof. Dr. Henrik Hartmann
Julius Kühn-Institut
Institut für Waldschutz
Erwin-Baur-Str. 27
06484 Quedlinburg
Telefon: +49 3946 47 4000
E-Mail: henrik.hartmann@julius-kuehn.de