Farm adaptation to climate change and determinants of agricultural landscapes DFG SFB DETECT (CRC 1502)

A05: Representation of adaptation: The on-farm perspective
In A05, we aim at an improved representation of how farmers adapt to climate change, altering weather (extremes), production risk and efficiency, and ultimately expectations on farming returns. Yet to date, farms seem reluctant to adapt their farming structure. Based on the real options approach, we hypothesize that this reluctance can be explained by farms’ investment behavior under risk and various sources of inefficiency. We test this hypothesis using observational data. To understand underlying cognitive decision processes under extreme hydrometeorological events, we test the impact of such perceived instances on farm adaptation decisions using an experimental approach.

A06: Processes and determinants of climate-relevant landscape configurations
In A06, we explore land use change and land cover change (LULCC) and seek to understand spatiotemporal landscape dynamics in the study area of the CRC. Our focus lies on identifying historical and contemporary determinants relevant for the composition and configuration of landscape elements that regulate coupled land and atmospheric water and energy cycles. This includes crops, forests/trees, and grasslands. We use modelling and econometric techniques to quantify potential LULCC determinants, such as economic trends, agricultural market dynamics, infrastructure investments and related risks, and policies at various administrative scales.

The improved representation of adaptation processes in form of adaptation probabilities generated in A05 and insights on regional LULCC dynamics generated in A06 will inform LULCC scenario development for earth system modelling.

Project teams:
A05: Prof. Dr. Silke Hüttel, Dr. Stefan Seifert, Wataru Kodama, Moritz Hartig (University of Göttingen), Prof. Dr. Michael Leyer (University of Marburg), Dr. Natalyia Stupak (Thünen Institute)
A06: Prof. Dr. Silke Hüttel (University of Göttingen), Prof. Dr. Jan Börner, Prof. Dr. Thomas Heckelei, Marco Ferro (University of Bonn)

DFG Gepris project description (German Research Foundation)
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