Press release: Advanced Forecast for Ensuring Communications Through Space

Nr. 168/2013 - 26.09.2013

Researcher team presents the first European prototype at Göttingen University

(pug) An international team of researchers headed by the University of Göttingen has developed the first prototype for a European early warning system for weather in outer space, with specific emphasis on telecommunication and navigation systems. Severe space storms can affect the performance of technologies on Earth or even cause them to fail. Any potential longer-term losses of power or disruptions to satellite navigation and communication systems are especially critical. The early warning system presented today at Göttingen University analyses the data from on-going space missions in real-time and calculates the strengths, direction, speed and course of solar storms along with the expected consequences on Earth. The early warnings for severe storms and RSS feed services are available through the project's website at www.affects-fp7.eu.

Multipoint observations from the STEREO, SDO, SOHO and Proba 2 satellites, together with measurements from the ISS are analyzed by the AFFECTS team in near real-time. "The analysis allows us to derive the properties of the solar storm, the time when it will approximately reach the Earth and what effects the ‘space hurricane’ will have.” This includes any navigation system errors, the strength of the electrical currents in the Earth's outer atmosphere and on its surface. The scientists have this information available within as little as an hour after the occurrence of a strong solar storm. The pre-warning time in the event of strong solar storms ranges from 12 hours to several days; reports on long-term "large-scale space weather conditions" can be created within a period of one to two weeks.

After a travel of about 150 million kilometres, the arrival of the storm near Earth is detected 1.5 million kilometres ahead of the Earth. Here, the ACE satellite measures the conditions of solar wind streams and energetic particles, and alerts the arrival of coronal mass ejections. "The data from ACE undergo special processing and just two minutes later we have the first report about whether the forecasted solar storm has reached Earth," explained Project Coordinator Dr. Volker Bothmer of the Institute for Astrophysics at Göttingen University. Additionally, information is gathered about when and where polar lights will appear.

Partnering Göttingen University on this project, titled "Advanced Forecast for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS)”, are the German Aerospace Center in Neustrelitz, the Fraunhofer Institute for Physical Measurement Techniques in Freiburg, the company Astrium ST in Friedrichshafen, Germany, the Hamburg Planetarium, the Royal Observatory of Belgium in Brussels, the University of Tromsoe's Geophysical Observatory in Norway, the National Space Agency in Ukraine and the Space Weather Prediction Center of the USA's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The European Union is providing nearly two million of the funds for the project that totals over 2.5 million euros.

Contact:
Dr. Volker Bothmer
Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Faculty of Physics – Institute for Astrophysics
Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
Phone: +49 551 39-5044
Email: bothmer@astro.physik.uni-goettingen.de
Web: www.astro.physik.uni-goettingen.de